修正後的太陽黑子史顯示太陽的自然變化並非氣候變遷的推手

原文網址：www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/08/150807220750.htm

Corrected sunspot history suggests climate change not due to natural solar trends

修正後的太陽黑子史顯示太陽的自然變化並非氣候變遷的推手

The Maunder Minimum, between 1645 and 1715, when sunspots were scarce and the winters harsh, strongly suggests a link between solar activity and climate change. Until now there was a general consensus that solar activity has been trending upwards over the past 300 years (since the end of the Maunder Minimum), peaking in the late 20th century -- called the Modern Grand Maximum by some [1].

從1645年至1715年的「蒙德極小期」(Maunder Minimum)為太陽黑子相當稀少而地球冬季十分嚴寒的時期，強烈顯示太陽活動與氣候變遷之間有所關聯。目前為止已有共識認為太陽活動在過去300年來(自蒙德極小期結束)越趨活躍，並在20世紀末到達高峰，有些人稱之為「現在極大期」(Modern Grand Maximum) [1]。

This trend has led some to conclude that the Sun has played a significant role in modern climate change. However, a discrepancy between two parallel series of sunspot number counts has been a contentious issue among scientists for some time.

這種趨勢造成有些人認為在現代的氣候變遷中太陽扮演了相當重要的角色。然而，兩種計算太陽黑子的方式之間的差異在科學家之間造成的爭論已有段時日。

The two methods of counting the sunspot number -- the Wolf Sunspot Number and the Group Sunspot Number [2] -- indicated significantly different levels of solar activity before about 1885 and also around 1945. With these discrepancies now eliminated, there is no longer any substantial difference between the two historical records.

計數太陽黑子的兩種方式：沃爾夫黑子數(Wolf Sunspot Number)與群黑子數(Group Sunspot Number) [2]，對太陽在1885年之前以及1945年左右的活動程度的計算結果差異相當大。而現在將此差異消珥後，這兩種歷史紀錄之間將不會再有任何的重大差異。

The new correction of the sunspot number, called the Sunspot Number Version 2.0, led by Frédéric Clette (Director of the World Data Centre [WDC]-SILSO), Ed Cliver (National Solar Observatory) and Leif Svalgaard (Stanford University, California, USA), nullifies the claim that there has been a Modern Grand Maximum.

這種修正太陽黑子數的新方法稱作Sunspot Number Version 2.0，由Frédéric Clette(世界數據資料中心-太陽黑子指數與太陽長期觀測(WDC-SILSO)的主任)、Ed Cliver(美國國家太陽天文台)與Leif Svalgaard(美國加州史丹佛大學)研發，此新方法否決了「現在極大期」存在的說法。

The results, presented at the IAU XXIX General Assembly in Honolulu, Hawai`i, today, make it difficult to explain the observed changes in the climate that started in the 18th century and extended through the industrial revolution to the 20th century as being significantly influenced by natural solar trends.

他們在今日於夏威夷檀香山舉辦的第29屆國際天文學聯合會(IAU XXIX General Assembly)發表他們的結果，其顯示自18世紀開始，從工業革命至20世紀所觀測到的氣候變遷，很難以太陽活動趨勢的強烈影響來解釋。

The sunspot number is the only direct record of the evolution of the solar cycle over multiple centuries and is the longest scientific experiment still ongoing.

太陽的活動週期數世紀以來如何演變的唯一直接記錄便是太陽黑子的數量，同時也是現在仍在進行中的最長壽科學實驗。

The apparent upward trend of solar activity between the 18th century and the late 20th century has now been identified as a major calibration error in the Group Sunspot Number. Now that this error has been corrected, solar activity appears to have remained relatively stable since the 1700s [3].

從18世紀至20世紀末太陽活動趨向活躍的顯著趨勢，現在被驗證出是群黑子數記數方法中重大的校正誤差(calibration error)而導致。既然此誤差已被修正，太陽活動顯然自1700年代以來便維持在相對穩定的狀態[3]。

The newly corrected sunspot numbers now provide a homogenous record of solar activity dating back some 400 years. Existing climate evolution models will need to be reevaluated given this entirely new picture of the long-term evolution of solar activity. This work will stimulate new studies both in solar physics (solar cycle modelling and predictions) and climatology, and can be used to unlock tens of millennia of solar records encoded in cosmogenic nuclides found in ice cores and tree rings. This could reveal more clearly the role the Sun plays in climate change over much longer timescales.

修正後新的太陽黑子數量記數方法提供了過去約400年太陽活動的連續記錄。對太陽活動長期變化的全新描述將會迫使現行的氣候預測模型重新運算。這項研究成果將會激發太陽物理學(模擬與預測太陽週期)以及氣候學領域的新研究，而樹輪以及冰芯數萬年來用宇生核種(cosmogenic nuclide)記下的太陽活動紀錄也有望以此幫忙解讀。這可以更清楚地揭露在長時間尺度下，太陽在氣候變遷當中扮演的角色究竟為何。

The new data series and the associated information are distributed from WDC-SILSO [4].

這些新的數據集以及相關資訊由WDC-SILSO所提供[4]。

[1] Note that the trend being discussed here is over longer periods than the familiar 11-year solar cycle.

[1]請注意這邊所討論的趨勢較廣為人知的11年太陽週期要長得多。

[2] The Wolf Sunspot Number (WSN) ranks as the oldest time series in solar terrestrial physics still in use today, having remained untouched for over 160 years. Established by Rudolf Wolf in 1856, the method is based on both the number of groups of sunspots and the total number of spots within all the groups.

[2]沃爾夫黑子數(WSN)是日地物理學(solar terrestrial physics)中至今仍在使用的時間序列中年代最久遠者，160年來幾乎沒有任何修改。1856年由Rudolf Wolf創建，此方法的基礎為太陽黑子群的數量以及所有黑子群中的黑子總數。

In 1994 the question began to arise as to whether the WSN was the correct method of constructing a historical sunspot record. The limitations of early telescopes meant that it was easy for smaller spots to be missed. With this in mind, a new index was established in 1998: the Group Sunspot Number (GSN), which is easier to measure and goes all the way back to the measurements done by Galileo, Thomas Harriot and Scheiner. This index was based solely on the number of sunspot groups. Establishing this system performed a valuable service by finding and digitising many sunspot observations not known or used by Wolf and his successors, effectively doubling the amount of data available before Wolf's tabulations.

1994年開始有人質疑沃爾夫黑子數是否為建立太陽黑子歷史紀錄的正確方法。早期望遠鏡的極限使得小型黑子很容易就被忽略。考量到這點而在1998年創立出新的指數：群黑子數(GSN)，因其較容易測量故可適用於早至伽利略、托馬斯·哈里奧特與史基納的觀測結果。此指數的根據僅建立在太陽黑子群的數量。建立GSN系統的最大價值在於其可以發現以及數位化許多Wolf與其後進未使用或確認的太陽黑子觀測資料，這使得年代在Wolf量表前的有效資料量提升了兩倍之多。

Unfortunately, the two series disagreed seriously before about 1885, and the GSN has not been maintained since the 1998 publication of the series. The GSN also revealed a pattern of continually rising solar activity, beginning in the 18th century and culminating in a Modern Grand Maximum in the latter part of the 20th century, which Wolf's method does not suggest. Overall, the discrepancies were too large and the applications (solar dynamo, climate change, space climate) too prominent for the two systems to continue to exist in disagreement.

不幸的是，這兩條時間序列在約1885年之前的數據有相當嚴重的不一致現象，且GSN自1998年發表後就再也沒有被修正過。GSN顯現出太陽活動有持續上升的現象，自18世紀開始並在20世紀後半到達現在極大期，然而沃爾夫方法卻沒有呈現出這種模式。總之，由於兩者差異過大且在應用層面上(太陽發電機(solar dynamo)、氣候變遷、太空氣候)的效應相當明顯，造成這兩種系統無法在不一致的狀況下繼續兼容。

[3] They remain within a constant amplitude range for the normal 11-year cycle.

[3]仍然落在一般11年周期的正常變動範圍之中。

[4] WDC-SILSO is located in Brussels and is the current curator of the Sunspot Number time series and associated data products. It is a member of the World Data System of the International Council for Science (ICSU), dedicated to the preservation and distribution of large and/or long-duration reference datasets in all domains of science.

[4] WDC-SILSO位於布魯塞爾，目前負責太陽黑子記數的時間序列以及相關數據的製作。其隸屬於國際科學理事會(World Data System of the International Council for Science, ICSU)的世界資料系統，此組織致力於保存及分類所有科學領域中的巨量與/或長期參考資料庫。

引用自：International Astronomical Union. "Corrected sunspot history suggests climate change not due to natural solar trends." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 7 August 2015.