海洋減緩全球升溫，直到現在…

原文網址：www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150716160652.htm

Oceans slowed global temperature rise, until now

海洋減緩全球升溫，直到現在…

Heat trapped below the surface will begin moving up kicking off a warming cycle

封在海洋下的熱能將會往上遷移而開啟下一次暖化循環

A new study of ocean temperature measurements shows that in recent years, extra heat from greenhouse gases has been trapped in the subsurface waters of the Pacific and Indian oceans, thus accounting for the slowdown in the global surface temperature increase observed during the past decade, researchers say.

研究人員說，測量海洋溫度的新研究指出，近幾年來太平洋與印度洋表面下的海水封住了來自溫室氣體的多餘熱能，造成了過去十年間觀測到的全球溫度上升減緩。

A specific layer of the Indian and Pacific oceans between 300 and 1,000 feet below the surface has been accumulating more heat than previously recognized, according to climate researchers from UCLA and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. They also found the movement of warm water has affected surface temperatures. The results were published July 9 in the journal Science.

根據來自UCLA(加州大學洛杉磯分校)與NASA噴氣推進實驗室(NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory)的氣候研究人員，累積於印度洋與太平洋300至1,000呎深(約90公尺至300公尺)的水層中的熱能，較之前認為的還要多。他們也發現溫暖海水的移動會影響地球表面的溫度。這些結果刊登於7月9日的期刊《科學》之上。

During the 20th century, as greenhouse gas concentrations increased and trapped more heat on Earth, global surface temperatures also increased. However, starting in the early 2000s though greenhouse gases continued to trap extra heat, the global average surface temperature stopped climbing for about a decade and even cooled a bit.

在20世紀，隨著溫室氣體的增加並困住更多地球上的熱能，全球表面溫度也隨之升高。然而，從2000年代早期開始，雖然溫室氣體持續地困住更多熱能，全球平均氣溫在近10年來卻沒有繼續攀升，甚至稍稍冷卻了一點。

In the study, researchers analyzed direct ocean temperature measurements, including observations from a global network of about 3,500 ocean temperature probes known as the Argo array. These measurements show temperatures below the surface have been increasing.

在此研究中，研究人員分析了直接測量海水溫度的結果，其中包括了含有3500個海洋溫度感測器的全球觀測網，稱作Argo觀測網的觀測數據。這些測量結果顯示海洋表面下的溫度正逐漸增加。

The Pacific Ocean is the primary source of the subsurface warm water found in the study, though some of that water now has been pushed to the Indian Ocean. Since 2003, unusually strong trade winds and other climatic features have been piling up warm water in the upper 1,000 feet of the western Pacific, pinning it against Asia and Australia.

西太平洋為此研究中發現的海洋表面之下溫暖水的主要來源，雖然其中有部分已被推至印度洋。從2003年起，反常的強烈季風與其他氣候特徵，持續地將溫暖的海水堆積在西太平洋亞洲及澳洲外海深度1,000呎之上的地方。

"The western Pacific got so warm that some of the warm water is leaking into the Indian Ocean through the Indonesian archipelago," said Veronica Nieves, lead author of the study and a UCLA researcher with the UCLA Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, a scientific collaboration between UCLA and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

「西太平洋變得過於溫暖，導致部分的溫暖海水經由印尼群島流至印度洋。」第一作者Veronica Nieves說，其為UCLA區域地球系統科學與工程聯合研究所的UCLA研究員，此機構為UCLA與NASA噴氣推進實驗室的聯合科研機構。

The movement of the warm Pacific water westward pulled heat away from the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific, which resulted in unusually cool surface temperatures during the last decade. Because the air temperature over the ocean is closely related to the ocean temperature, this provides a plausible explanation for the global cooling trend in surface temperature, Nieves said.

往西流動的溫暖太平洋海水會將中央與東部太平洋表面海水的熱能帶走，造成過去十年來此區域的反常低溫。Nieves說由於海洋之上的空氣溫度與海水溫度會密切相關，因此這可以成為全球溫度趨冷的合理解釋。

Cooler surface temperatures also are related to a climatic pattern called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which moves in a 20- to 30-year cycle. It has been in a cool phase during the entire time surface temperatures showed cooling, bringing cooler-than-normal water to the eastern Pacific and warmer water to the western side. There currently are signs the pattern may be changing, with observations showing warmer-than-usual water in the eastern Pacific.

較冷的表面溫度也與稱作「太平洋十年濤動」(Pacific Decadal Oscillation)的氣候模式相關，其以20至30年的週期變化。在表面溫度呈現冷化的整段時期，此模式正好處於「冷相位」，會將比平常冷的海水帶至東太平洋，較暖的海水帶至西太平洋。而現在此模式的變化徵兆已然出現，觀測顯示東太平洋出現了比平常更暖的海水。

"Given the fact the Pacific Decadal Oscillation seems to be shifting to a warm phase, ocean heating in the Pacific will definitely drive a major surge in global surface warming," Nieves said.

「在太平洋十年濤動看起來開始轉換至暖相位的情況下，太平洋的暖化勢必會帶動一波急遽的全球表面暖化。」Nieves說。

Previous attempts to explain the global surface temperature cooling trend have relied more heavily on climate model results or a combination of modeling and observations, which may be better at simulating long-term impacts over many decades and centuries. This study relied on observations, which are better for showing shorter-term changes over 10 to 20 years.

先前嘗試解釋全球表面溫度冷化的趨勢時，多半倚賴氣候模型的結果，或者結合模擬與觀測，這些方法對於模擬數十年至百年以上的長期氣候變化有較佳的表現。而本研究則完全利用觀測結果，其更能顯示10至20年間的短期變化。

Pauses of a decade or more in Earth's average surface temperature warming have happened before in modern times, with one occurring between the mid-1940s and late 1970s.

現代地球平均表面溫度停止暖化長達十年甚至更久的現象在以前也出現過，其中一次發生在1940年代中期至1970年代晚期。

"In the long term, there is robust evidence of unabated global warming," Nieves said.

Co-authors are Josh Willis and William Patzert of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

「長期而言，有很堅實的證據顯示全球暖化並未減弱。」Nieves說。此研究的共同作者包括NASA噴氣推進實驗室的Josh Willis與William Patzert。

引用自：University of California - Los Angeles. "Oceans slowed global temperature rise, until now: Heat trapped below the surface will begin moving up kicking off a warming cycle." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 16 July 2015.