緩緩移動的斷層或許預示了地震即將到來

原文網址：www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/04/160405114218.htm

Slow fault movements may indicate impending earthquakes

緩緩移動的斷層或許預示了地震即將到來

Scientists from Nanyang Technological University (NTU Singapore) at its Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) have discovered a way to forecast earthquakes based on slow fault movements caused by moving sub layers of Earth.

南洋理工大學駐新加坡地球觀測站的科學家發現，藉由觀察地球內部地層錯動而引發的緩慢斷層活動，可以用來預告地震即將發生。

So far, scientists believe that larger earthquakes are unlikely to occur following tremors or earthquakes below a Richter scale of 2 that are caused by small vibrations or slow fault movements such as those observed in the area of Parkfield along the San Andreas Fault in California, USA.

目前為止，科學家依據觀測像美國加州聖安地列斯斷層上帕克菲爾德(Parkfield)地區的結果，認為在小型振動或斷層緩慢移動而引發了芮氏規模小於2的微震或地震之後，不可能會有大型地震接著發生。

However, the NTU team found that not only do these vibrations potentially point to an impending earthquake, they also discovered a discernible pattern to them.

然而，南洋理工大學不僅發現這種振動可能指出了地震即將到來，甚至還發現它們之間有可以依循的模式。

"This discovery defied our understanding of how faults accumulate and release stress over time. These vibration patterns are caused by alternating slow and fast ruptures occurring on the same patch of a fault," said Asst Prof Sylvain Barbot, from NTU's Asian School of the Environment and an earth scientist at EOS.

「這項發現挑戰了我們對於斷層隨著時間會如何累積與釋放應力的知識。在同一段斷層上因為破裂反覆地快慢交替發生，而造成了這種振動模式。」南洋理工大學亞洲環境學院的助理教授 Sylvain Barbot說，他也是新加坡地球觀測站的地球科學家。

"If only slow movements are detected, it does not mean that a large earthquake cannot happen there. On the contrary, the same area of the fault can rupture in a catastrophic earthquake," he warned.

「若在某個區段觀測到只有緩慢的運動發生，也不代表說這個區域之後就不會發生大地震。相反地，斷層上的同一區域有可能在將來破裂而發生毀滅性大地震。」他提出了這樣的警告。

The study, which has major significance on the prediction of earthquakes, was led by Asst Prof Barbot's PhD student, Miss Deepa Mele Veedu. It was published in Nature.

此篇對於地震預測有重大貢獻的研究刊登於《自然》期刊之上，主持人為 Barbot助理教授的博士生， Deepa Mele Veedu女士。

Seismic hazards in the Southeast Asia region will probably come from an impending large earthquake in the Mentawai seismic gap in Sumatra, Indonesia -- a current area of active monitoring and investigation.

東南亞地區的下一次地震災害可能會由印尼蘇門答臘明打威(Mentawai )地震空白帶(seismic gap)的大型地震造成。此地區現有大量的監測和調查活動進行中。

EOS scientists have earlier pointed out a large earthquake may occur any time in this area southwest of Padang -- the only place along a large fault where a big earthquake has not occurred in the past two centuries. The team's latest findings could potentially be applied in the seismic monitoring of the area to help better forecast large earthquakes in the region.

新加坡地球觀測站的科學家先前早已指出巴東(Padang )西南方隨時都可能發生大型地震。因為此地區是一條大型斷層帶上過去2個世紀以來唯一還未發生大地震的區域。此團隊最新的研究或許可以運用在巴東地區的地震監測上，而提高預測此地區地震的準確性。

EOS conducts fundamental research on earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis and climate change in and around Southeast Asia, towards safer and more sustainable societies.

新加坡地球觀測站主要著重於東南亞及鄰近地區的地震、火山爆發、海嘯和氣候變遷的基礎研究。它們的宗旨是要創造更安全且更能永續發展的社會。

引用自：Nanyang Technological University. "Slow fault movements may indicate impending earthquakes." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 5 April 2016.