原文網址:www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/04/160419083247.htm
Two volcanoes trigger crises of the late antiquity
兩起火山噴發事件引發了古典時代晚期的社會危機International team of climate researchers reconstruct global cooling in the reign of emperor Justinian
由國際氣候學家組成的團隊重建了於查士丁尼一世統治時期發生的全球冷化事件
Contemporary
chroniclers wrote about a "mystery cloud" which dimmed the
light of the sun above the Mediterranean in the years 536 and 537 CE.
Tree rings testify poor growing conditions over the whole Northern
Hemisphere -- the years from 536 CE onward seem to have been
overshadowed by an unusual natural phenomenon. Social crises
including the first European plague pandemic beginning in 541, are
associated with this phenomenon. Only recently have researchers found
conclusive proof of a volcanic origin of the 536 solar dimming, based
on traces of volcanic sulfur from two major eruptions newly dated to
536 CE and 540 CE in ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica.
同時期的編年史學者於文獻中寫道,西元536年到537年地中海上空因「神秘雲霧」的籠罩而變得天昏地暗。樹輪紀錄證實了當時整個北半球的植物皆處於相當惡劣的生長情況,顯然自西元536年起北半球便因一種不尋常的自然現象而蒙上了一層陰影。包括始於西元541年歐陸史上首次發生的瘟疫大流行在內,種種的社會危機似乎都跟此現象有所關聯。科學家直到最近才發現決定性的證據證明西元536年陽光變得昏暗是由火山造成。這些證據來自於格陵蘭和南極的冰芯,其中含有最新定出年代為西元536年和540年,由兩次大型火山噴發出的火山硫磺造成的痕跡。
An
international team of climate scientists led by Dr. Matthew Toohey
at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and Prof. Dr.
Kirstin Krüger of the University of Oslo (UiO), with financial
support from the Centre for Earth Evolution and Dynamics (CEED) at
the UiO, has investigated the time period using the new ice core
data, historical evidence and climate models. As they write in the
international journal Climatic Change, the impact of the volcanic
double event of 536/540 on Northern Hemisphere climate was stronger
than any other documented or reconstructed event of the past 1200
years. "One of the eruptions would have led to a significant
cooling of Earth's surface. Two of them, so close in time, caused
what is probably the coldest decade of the past 2000 years,"
says Dr. Matthew Toohey from GEOMAR, lead author of the study today
at a press conference at the annual EGU Meeting in Vienna where he
presented the results.
由德國基爾的萊布尼茨海洋科學研究所的
Matthew
Toohey博士,以及奧斯陸大學的Kirstin
Krüger博士領導的國際氣侯學家團隊,在奧斯陸大學地球演化及動力學中心的資助之下,利用新的冰芯資料、歷史證據以及氣候模型來調查這段時期究竟發生了什麼事件。就他們發表於國際期刊《氣候變遷》(Climatic
Change)的論文,在536年和540年發生的兩次火山爆發對北半球氣候造成的影響之大,在過去1200年以來有文獻紀錄或重建出來的所有事件中,沒有任何一個可以與之相提並論。「這兩次火山噴發中的任何一者其強度便足以劇烈冷卻地表。而這兩次發生的間距如此之短,恐怕造成了過去2000年以來最冷的10年。」此研究的第一作者,萊布尼茨海洋科學研究所的
Matthew
Toohey說。今日他於舉辦在維也納的歐洲地質年會上的記者會中發表他們的成果。
To
simulate the impact of the 536 and 540 eruptions, the scientists
used the available data from ice cores and the descriptions of the
solar dimming from contemporary scholars. With this data they
estimated the magnitude of the eruptions and their approximate
locations on Earth, and then simulated the spread and impacts of the
aerosol clouds resulting from the volcanic injection of sulfur into
the stratosphere. This revealed that following the eruptions, the
solar radiation at Earth's surface was strongly reduced over the
Northern Hemisphere for several years, and caused decreases in the
hemispheric average temperature of up to 2 degrees Celsius.
為了模擬536年和540年火山爆發造成的影響,科學家利用了自冰芯中取得的數據,以及當時學者描述的陽光變弱現象。他們憑藉這些資料來推測這兩起噴發事件的規模以及發生在地球上的大致位置,接著他們模擬由火山爆發而進入平流層中的硫磺在形成氣膠雲霧後會如何擴散,以及造成何種影響。結果顯示火山噴發之後,北半球照射至地表的太陽輻射會大幅降低數年之久,因此使北半球均溫下降了多達攝氏2度。
The
relationship between the "mystery cloud" of 536 and the
transition from Antiquity to the Middle Ages is an issue of great
popular interest. Volcanic eruptions in the more recent past have
impacted human societies. For example, in 1815 the Indonesian
volcano Tambora hurled so much ash and sulfur into the atmosphere
that the year 1816 became known as "the year without summer"
in Europe and North America, where unusually low temperatures led to
crop failures and famines. For eruptions of the more distance past,
connections between eruptions and societal impacts become less
clear.
536年的「神秘雲霧」以及歷史同時從古典時期進入中世紀,兩者之間的關聯是許多人相當感興趣的議題。距今較不遠的火山爆發事件確實曾對人類社會造成了重大影響。舉例來說,1815年印尼的坦博拉火山往大氣中拋出的火山灰及硫磺其量之多,使得1816年成為歐洲以及北美洲眾人所知的「夏天消失的一年」,當時不尋常的低溫造成這些地方作物歉收以及飢荒爆發。但對於更遙遠之前的火山噴發事件來說,火山爆發與社會動盪之間的關聯就不是那麼清楚。
Toohey
and his colleagues used their climate model simulations to directly
estimate the impact of the eruptions on agriculture in Europe, and
identified Northern Europe and in particular Scandinavia as the most
likely locations to have suffered under the cold conditions after
the eruptions. This result supports the theory of a connection
between the eruptions and archaeological evidence of a large-scale
societal crisis in Scandinavia in the 6th century. "Each one of
the eruptions of 536/540 would have strongly impacted societies, and
it happened twice within four years," says co-author Prof. Dr.
Kirstin Krüger from the University of Oslo.
Toohey
和他的同僚利用他們建立的氣候來直接預估這兩次火山爆發影響歐洲農業的程度,他們發現在歐陸北端以及部份的斯堪地那維亞是噴發過後最因環境變冷而深受其害的地區。這些結果也支持了一項理論,其認為考古證據顯示出6世紀斯堪地那維亞發生的大規模社會危機,跟火山爆發之間有一定的關聯。「536年和540年的火山噴發事件中的任何一次都能對社會造成重大影響,更別說它們倆發生的間距僅僅相隔4年。」奧斯陸大學的共同作者Kirstin
Krüger博士說。
Which
volcanoes exactly were responsible for these aerosols clouds is
still enigmatic. "Several candidates are being discussed,
including volcanoes in Central America, Indonesia and North America.
Future studies will be necessary to show the exact source of the
aerosol clouds of 536/540," says Dr. Toohey.
究竟是哪座火山造成了這些氣膠雲霧仍然沒有解答。「我們討論到的一些候選者包括了位於中美洲、印尼和北美的火山。未來的研究勢必能準確找出536年和540年氣膠雲霧的來源。」Toohey.博士說。
引用自:Helmholtz
Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR). "Two volcanoes trigger
crises of the late antiquity: International team of climate
researchers reconstruct global cooling in the reign of emperor
Justinian." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 19 April 2016.