新研究顯示人類對氣候的影響可追溯至1930年代

原文網址：www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/03/160308134917.htm

Human influence on climate dates back to 1930s, new research finds

新研究顯示人類對氣候的影響可追溯至1930年代

Humans have triggered the last 16 record-breaking hot years experienced on Earth (up to 2014), with our impact on the global climate going as far back as 1937, a new study finds.

新研究顯示人類導致了地球最近16個氣溫創新高的年份(至2014年為止)，而我們對全球氣候的影響最遠可追溯至1937年。

The study suggests that without human-induced climate change, recent hot summers and years would not have occurred. The researchers also found that this effect has been masked until recently in many areas of the world by the wide use of industrial aerosols, which have a cooling effect on temperatures.

此篇研究認為若沒有人類導致的氣候變遷，就不會發生近年來的熾熱夏季及年份。研究人員也發現這類影響在世上許多處可能因工業氣膠廣泛使用所造成的冷卻效應而被暫時掩飾，直到近幾年才展露出來。

"Everywhere we look, the climate change signal for extreme heat events is becoming stronger," said Andrew King, a climate extremes research fellow at the University of Melbourne, Australia and lead author of the study. "Recent record-breaking hot years globally were so much outside natural variability that they were almost impossible without global warming."

「不管我們觀察何處，極端高熱事件是氣候變遷的表徵可說是越來越明顯。」 此篇研究的第一作者Andrew King說，他是澳洲墨爾本大學極端氣候中心的研究員。「最近幾年發生在全球各處的破紀錄高溫遠遠超出了自然變化，其程度之大若無全球暖化幾乎不可能發生。」

The researchers examined weather events that exceeded the range of natural variability and used climate modelling to compare those events to a world without human-induced greenhouse gases. The study was accepted for publication yesterday in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

研究人員檢視這些超出自然變化範圍的氣候事件，並將這些事件以氣候模型來跟沒有人類排放溫室氣體的世界互相比較。這篇研究於昨日被美國地球物理學會的期刊《地球物理通訊》接受並刊登。

According to the new study, record-breaking hot years attributable to climate change globally are 1937, 1940, 1941, 1943-44, 1980-1981, 1987-1988, 1990, 1995, 1997-98, 2010 and 2014.

根據此研究，因全球氣候變遷導致的破紀錄高溫年份分別為 1937、1940、 1941、1943-44、1980-1981、1987-1988、1990 、1995、1997-98、2010和2014年。(為什麼這邊算起來只有15個)

"In Australia, our research shows the last six record-breaking hot years and last three record-breaking hot summers were made more likely by the human influence on the climate," King said. "We were able to see climate change even more clearly in Australia because of its position in the Southern Hemisphere in the middle of the ocean, far away from the cooling influence of high concentrations of industrial aerosols."

「我們認為澳洲最近六個破紀錄的高溫年份和最近三個破紀錄的高溫夏季很可能是因為人類對氣候的影響而導致。」King說。「我們在澳洲可以更清楚地看到氣候變遷的影響，這是因為它位處南半球的海洋中央，距高濃度工業氣膠造成的冷卻效應距離甚遠。」

Aerosols in high concentrations reflect more heat into space, thereby cooling temperatures. However, when those aerosols are removed from the atmosphere, warming returns rapidly. The researchers observed this impact when they looked at five different regions: Central England, Central Europe, the central United States, East Asia and Australia.

高濃度的氣膠能反射更多的熱量回太空，因而可以降低氣溫。然而，一旦將這些氣膠從大氣中排除，氣溫就會迅速回暖。研究人員檢視了以下五個不同地區而觀察到上述效應：英格蘭中部、歐洲中部、美國中部、亞洲東部和澳洲。

There were cooling periods, likely caused by aerosols, in Central England, the central United States, Central Europe and East Asia during the 1970s before accelerated warming returned, and aerosol concentrations also delayed the emergence of a clear human-caused climate change signal in all regions studied except Australia, according to the study.

根據此篇研究，在1970年代英格蘭中部、歐洲中部、美國中部和東亞在暖化重回而加劇之前，都可能有因為氣膠而導致的冷化時期。另外，除了澳洲之外，其他所有地區都因為氣膠濃度較高，而造成人為導致的氣候變遷的明確跡象延後出現。

"In regards to a human-induced climate change signal, Australia was the canary in the coal mine for the rest of the world," King said.

「就人類導致的氣候變遷跡象而言，澳洲對世上其餘地區而言就像是煤礦坑裡的金絲雀。」King說。

引用自：American Geophysical Union. "Human influence on climate dates back to 1930s, new research finds." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 8 March 2016.